Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 254.822476 311.408058 381.892427 477.751354 607.300853 7.802301e+02 1.035561e+03
2025-07-27 194.739620 261.142669 355.105320 503.400855 743.080461 1.138666e+03 1.900139e+03
2025-08-03 158.781997 226.857642 332.212125 517.950932 864.092384 1.550573e+03 3.259265e+03
2025-08-10 133.695510 200.133360 310.111508 521.597446 965.078964 2.000936e+03 5.329560e+03
2025-08-17 113.840904 176.451523 285.528721 510.090495 1028.901218 2.427217e+03 8.189288e+03
2025-08-24 98.683832 157.301193 263.762770 495.817878 1079.031844 2.872115e+03 1.239985e+04
2025-08-31 86.781428 141.575809 244.626980 480.516188 1119.271625 3.339937e+03 1.871277e+04
2025-09-07 83.149578 140.066874 252.459632 528.437584 1363.572387 4.893725e+03 4.483612e+04
2025-09-14 76.391798 131.482073 243.933790 533.907895 1485.064196 6.167192e+03 9.052667e+04
2025-09-21 71.715967 126.199233 241.313403 554.002478 1674.812569 8.276253e+03 2.447425e+05
2025-09-28 66.106835 118.218648 231.144678 550.067355 1774.367592 1.013822e+04 6.421672e+05
2025-10-05 64.699598 118.674690 240.441418 606.787859 2185.684510 1.635187e+04 1.080447e+07
2025-10-12 62.577481 117.537953 246.342233 658.436755 2656.983443 2.717579e+04 NaN
2025-10-19 59.931675 114.889365 248.026571 697.985382 3134.553624 4.482266e+04 NaN
2025-10-26 56.830011 110.773568 245.071706 720.391032 3556.061815 7.125351e+04 NaN
2025-11-02 53.466456 105.610349 238.307173 726.019396 3884.747166 1.078163e+05 NaN
2025-11-09 49.729954 99.128527 226.756169 708.381374 4017.727500 1.449480e+05 NaN
2025-11-16 46.272114 92.947153 215.094466 686.570081 4098.352974 1.903606e+05 NaN
2025-11-23 43.134946 87.224385 203.899896 663.276518 4145.330007 2.467154e+05 NaN
2025-11-30 42.837082 88.413764 213.266190 736.543032 5354.890025 8.754907e+05 NaN
2025-12-07 40.910715 85.312235 209.097501 744.964633 5881.855288 2.018895e+06 NaN
2025-12-14 39.624128 83.698681 209.309670 775.999992 6837.611678 9.386090e+06 NaN
2025-12-21 37.674258 80.172542 202.849565 769.910095 7254.588781 3.643422e+07 NaN